My Writings. My Thoughts.

Monday June 8, 2020

// June 8th, 2020 // Comments Off on Monday June 8, 2020 // Daily News

ECONOMY

The U.S. entered a recession in February, according to the official economic arbiter

Jeff Cox@JEFF.COX.7528@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
KEY POINTS
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research, which determines recessions, said the U.S. peaked in February.
  • That brought to an end a 128-month expansion, the longest in post-World War II history.
  • The bureau cited the “unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy.”
New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy hands out bags containing meals, face masks and other personal protective supplies to residents in need outside the NAN Newark Tech World during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Newark, New Jersey, M
New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy hands out bags containing meals, face masks and other personal protective supplies to residents in need outside the NAN Newark Tech World during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Newark, New Jersey, May 6, 2020.
Mike Segar | Reuters

The worst U.S. downturn since the Great Depression is now officially a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Though it seemed a foregone conclusion, the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, made the declaration Monday as the nation tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

“The committee recognizes that the pandemic and the public health response have resulted in a downturn with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions,” the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee said in a statement. “Nonetheless, it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions.”

In making the declaration, the committee determined that a “clear peak in monthly economic activity” occurred in February. The peak in quarterly activity happened in the fourth quarter of 2019.

As a rule of thumb, recessions are thought to entail two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. However, that isn’t always the case, and it’s generally the NBER’s decision to determine recessions.

The committee noted that “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.”

U.S. GDP fell 5% in the first quarter and is likely to post the worst decline in history for the second quarter — possibly more than 50%.

The recession brings to an end the longest expansion in U.S. history, which the NBER dated as lasting 128 months, or nearly 11 years. That growth seemed poised to continue until the declaration of the coronavirus as a pandemic, a move that triggered 95% of the U.S. economy being put into shutdown and sent the unemployment rate, which had been at a 50-year low, soaring to 14.7%, its worst in post-World War II history.

However, most economists think contraction will end in the second quarter, putting an end to the recession as well. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said that while this is “almost certainly the deepest recession since” the war, “it is almost certainly also the shortest recession.”

In fact, Hatzius pointed out, no recession has lasted less than six months, dating back to the mid-1800s.

 

 

Today’s Inspiration

Determined to Love

We all have a few people in our lives who are like sandpaper to us; some are like an entire package of sandpaper. Believe it or not, God places them in our lives to smooth off our rough edges. We’re all like diamonds in the rough; we have something incredibly beautiful and valuable underneath the hard, crusty surface of our flesh. When God began to work spiritual maturity in me, He placed several people in my life who were extremely difficult for me to deal with. I thought they needed to change, but God wanted to use them to change me. We need to learn how to deal with all kinds of people and appreciate the ways they’re different from us.

Dave is a great example of this. He can wait a long time for things and never get frustrated, but I want things to happen quickly. He’s quiet and I talk a lot; he likes to play music in the morning, and I like it quiet. I’m sure you have people in your life who are very different than you are, too. Instead of being irritated, or proudly thinking we’re right and they’re wrong, we should do our best to accept them in love, just like Jesus accepts us. We can be determined to love and get along with each other no matter how different our personalities or situations may be. Because when we love the people around us— even the most difficult people— we open ourselves up to learn something God may be trying to teach us. Today, I encourage you to choose to walk in the love of Christ and let Him shape you through the other people He brings into your life.

Prayer Starter: Father, please help me not to stay frustrated with the difficult people in my life. Give me the grace I need to love and accept them right where they are, and to learn what I need to learn in the process. In Jesus’ Name, amen.

Tuesday March 3, 2020

// March 3rd, 2020 // Comments Off on Tuesday March 3, 2020 // Daily News

5 things to know before the stock market opens Tuesday

Matthew J. Belvedere@MATT_BELVEDERE

Dow futures, in another volatile overnight session, were pointing to losses at Tuesday’s open on Wall Street after a morning G-7 statement contained no specific actions to the combat the economic risks of the coronavirus. Hopes for action from the Federal Reserve and world central banks to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus sparked a powerful rally on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared nearly 1,300 points or 5% in its biggest percent-gain since March 2009, reclaiming a big chunk of last week’s largest weekly decline since the 2008 financial crisis.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed out of correction territory Monday. A correction is defined as a decline of at least 10% from recent 52-week highs. Meanwhile, investors will be looking for signs of how the coronavirus may be affecting retailers Target and Kohl’s when they hold conference calls after issuing earnings. Target reported mixed fourth-quarter results before the bell. Kohl’s beat on the top and bottom lines and hiked its dividend by 5%. Nordstrom leads Tuesday afternoon’s retail earnings reports.

2. Mnuchin and Powell led a call of G-7 finance ministers and central bankers

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday morning led a conference call of global finance ministers and central bankers to coordinate an economic policy response to coronavirus. “We, G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, are closely monitoring the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its impact on markets and economic conditions,” according to a post-call statement. Early Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for many consumer loans, moved higher after hitting a record low of 1.03% on Monday.

3. Trump again calls for the Fed to cut rates

Ahead of the G-7 call, President Donald Trump once again called for the Fed to cut interest rates after the Australian central bank cut its rates to record lows and noted the impact of the coronavirus. In an early Tuesday morning tweet, the president said, “Jerome Powell led Federal Reserve has called it wrong from day one.” Powell was appointed by Trump to lead the U.S. central bank.

Australia’s Central Bank cut interest rates and stated it will most likely further ease in order to make up for China’s Coronavirus situation and slowdown. They reduced to 0.5%, a record low. Other countries are doing the same thing, if not more so. Our Federal Reserve has us paying higher rates than many others, when we should be paying less. Tough on our exporters and puts the USA at a competitive disadvantage. Must be the other way around. Should ease and cut rate big. Jerome Powell led Federal Reserve has called it wrong from day one. Sad!

4. Coronavirus cases outside China accelerate

The spread of coronavirus in China is slowing while new cases in many other countries are accelerating. The vast majority of the more than 91,000 global cases and over 3,100 deaths are still in China. However, new cases in South Korea surged by 851 on Tuesday, bringing total infections there to more than 5,100, including 31 deaths. Italy’s cases rose to more than 2,000 with 52 deaths. The U.S. has at least 91 coronavirus cases with at least six deaths. On Capitol Hill, aides said negotiations were nearing completion on an emergency funding bill to develop a vaccine and offer disaster loans to businesses hurt by the crisis.

5. Super Tuesday could be make-or-break for the remaining Democratic candidates

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden are vying for a victory in Texas, the second biggest delegate haul among the 14 states holding Democratic presidential nominating contests on Super Tuesday. Billionaire ex-New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, on ballots for the first Tuesday, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren could also win delegates as the primary field shrinks. A reinvigorated Biden gained endorsements from former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, both of whom dropped out of the race after poor results in Saturday’s South Carolina primary.

 

 

Today’s Inspiration

Love Through the Little Things

What we do for others doesn’t always need to be a big thing—it’s often little acts of kindness that mean the most. If we always do just a little more than we have to, we’ll end up being a blessing to many. For example, if you’ve eaten at a restaurant and your meal was $8 and you pay with a $10 bill, you could leave a $1 tip, or you could do a little extra and tell the waiter to keep the rest. It’s only a dollar, but it’s a way of doing a little something extra.

If we treat people with generosity, we will find our own blessings increasing. We’ll have more joy, and God will bring a harvest of good things into our own lives. Don’t be the kind of person who only does what they have to—always go the extra mile.

One day I was checking out at a bookstore and my change was a little over a dollar. I noticed a collection box at the register asking people to give their change to help hungry children. My first thought was, “I don’t have to do that, I give all the time.” But my second thought was, “I don’t have to, but I’m going to, just to go the extra mile.” It isn’t difficult to figure out which of my thoughts was from God and which one was just my own mind. I gave the change and of course I never missed it, but my small extra gift was enough to feed a child for an entire day in a third world country like India or Africa. What seems like a small thing to us is often huge to someone else. Do all you can, as often as you can, for as many people as you can. This is the way God wants us to live.

Prayer Starter: Father, thank You for all the ways You’ve blessed me. Please show me how I can go the extra mile to be kind to those around me today. In Jesus’ Name, amen.

 

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