Monday June 8, 2020

// June 8th, 2020 // Daily News

ECONOMY

The U.S. entered a recession in February, according to the official economic arbiter

Jeff Cox@JEFF.COX.7528@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
KEY POINTS
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research, which determines recessions, said the U.S. peaked in February.
  • That brought to an end a 128-month expansion, the longest in post-World War II history.
  • The bureau cited the “unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy.”
New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy hands out bags containing meals, face masks and other personal protective supplies to residents in need outside the NAN Newark Tech World during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Newark, New Jersey, M
New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy hands out bags containing meals, face masks and other personal protective supplies to residents in need outside the NAN Newark Tech World during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Newark, New Jersey, May 6, 2020.
Mike Segar | Reuters

The worst U.S. downturn since the Great Depression is now officially a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Though it seemed a foregone conclusion, the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, made the declaration Monday as the nation tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

“The committee recognizes that the pandemic and the public health response have resulted in a downturn with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions,” the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee said in a statement. “Nonetheless, it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions.”

In making the declaration, the committee determined that a “clear peak in monthly economic activity” occurred in February. The peak in quarterly activity happened in the fourth quarter of 2019.

As a rule of thumb, recessions are thought to entail two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. However, that isn’t always the case, and it’s generally the NBER’s decision to determine recessions.

The committee noted that “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.”

U.S. GDP fell 5% in the first quarter and is likely to post the worst decline in history for the second quarter — possibly more than 50%.

The recession brings to an end the longest expansion in U.S. history, which the NBER dated as lasting 128 months, or nearly 11 years. That growth seemed poised to continue until the declaration of the coronavirus as a pandemic, a move that triggered 95% of the U.S. economy being put into shutdown and sent the unemployment rate, which had been at a 50-year low, soaring to 14.7%, its worst in post-World War II history.

However, most economists think contraction will end in the second quarter, putting an end to the recession as well. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said that while this is “almost certainly the deepest recession since” the war, “it is almost certainly also the shortest recession.”

In fact, Hatzius pointed out, no recession has lasted less than six months, dating back to the mid-1800s.

 

 

Today’s Inspiration

Determined to Love

We all have a few people in our lives who are like sandpaper to us; some are like an entire package of sandpaper. Believe it or not, God places them in our lives to smooth off our rough edges. We’re all like diamonds in the rough; we have something incredibly beautiful and valuable underneath the hard, crusty surface of our flesh. When God began to work spiritual maturity in me, He placed several people in my life who were extremely difficult for me to deal with. I thought they needed to change, but God wanted to use them to change me. We need to learn how to deal with all kinds of people and appreciate the ways they’re different from us.

Dave is a great example of this. He can wait a long time for things and never get frustrated, but I want things to happen quickly. He’s quiet and I talk a lot; he likes to play music in the morning, and I like it quiet. I’m sure you have people in your life who are very different than you are, too. Instead of being irritated, or proudly thinking we’re right and they’re wrong, we should do our best to accept them in love, just like Jesus accepts us. We can be determined to love and get along with each other no matter how different our personalities or situations may be. Because when we love the people around us— even the most difficult people— we open ourselves up to learn something God may be trying to teach us. Today, I encourage you to choose to walk in the love of Christ and let Him shape you through the other people He brings into your life.

Prayer Starter: Father, please help me not to stay frustrated with the difficult people in my life. Give me the grace I need to love and accept them right where they are, and to learn what I need to learn in the process. In Jesus’ Name, amen.

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