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Monday September 26, 2022

// September 26th, 2022 // Comments Off on Monday September 26, 2022 // Daily News

Fox News: The stock market’s value is down $7.6 trillion since Biden took office

The Morgan Stanley strategist who called the bear market says the S&P could fall to the low 3,000s

PUBLISHED MON, SEP 26 2022

The S&P 500 could fall to the low 3,000 range, as an earnings recession appears “unavoidable,” but the market may then not stay down for long, said Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, who was correctly bearish going into this tough year for markets.

“We’re in a cyclical downturn for growth, and that’s the fire-and-ice narrative to a tee, right — the tightening policy and the slowing growth,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “And we’re just not finished yet, in our estimation.”

Market observers have questioned where the “bottom” of the market will be now that the Federal Reserve appears to be willing to tolerate a recession in order to win its battle against inflation.

Wilson’s bear case for the S&P 500 is around 3,000, with his base case at 3,400. The strategist said he sees potential for both cases with the soft landing for earnings now less likely. These estimates represent a drop of about 8% to 18% from the S&P 500′s current level.

The rapid move in rates was another bad sign in the strategist’s view, with the one-year Treasury bill yield surpassing 4% on Monday.

Wilson said this could be an unusual moment in the market. The employment picture can create confusion about the state of the economy, as the labor shortage keeps wages up, which isn’t typically seen during recessionary periods.

Wilson also noted there is “so much money sloshing around” compared with other times of economic downswing, but he would not use that to make bets on where the market goes.

He said efforts to curb inflation are the “medicine” to get the country out of the “debt trap” it has been trying to free itself from since the 2008 recession. The market needs time to readjust to the headwinds as the Fed attempts to control inflation through rate hikes, he said.

Wilson said we are nearing a turning point and he is getting ready to spring into action once the market hits the firm’s target. The S&P 500 is off 23% from its high and near its lowest levels in two years.

“We’re getting close to the end,” he said. “The damage has been done. … Now, we’re actually starting to get ready to be more aggressive. It’s just not time yet, in our view, and to be premature can be quite costly.”

Monday September 19, 2022

// September 19th, 2022 // Comments Off on Monday September 19, 2022 // Daily News

Joe Biden continues to destroy America

S&P 500 slips as rates continue march higher ahead of Fed meeting this week

The S&P 500 slipped on Monday, building on last week’s steep losses, as interest rates surged ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 15 points, or 0.05% higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 3.51% on Monday, its highest level in 11 years, and rates across the board continued to rise ahead of the Fed’s likely decision to raise its benchmark rate by another three-quarters of a point to snuff out inflation. After some brief hope over the summer that the Fed may be done with its aggressive tightening campaign soon, investors have recently been dumping stocks on fears the central bank will go too far and tip the economy into a recession.

Investors are focused on the Fed’s latest policy meeting slated to begin Tuesday. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by another three-quarters of a point, though investors are also watching for guidance about corporate earnings before the next reporting season begins in October.

“As we peer into the end of 2022, we continue to anticipate choppy conditions in US equities, which we view as caught in a tug of war between deeply bearish sentiment (a contrarian / bullish signal) and ongoing concerns about further Fed tightening and its longer-term economic ramifications and downward earnings revisions,” wrote RBC Capital Markets’ Lori Calvasina in a note to clients Monday.

Six of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors rose, led to the upside by consumer discretionary. Energy and health care fell more than 1% each.

Stocks slid last week as investors reacted to a hotter-than-expected inflation report and a dismal warning from FedEx about a “significantly worsened” global economy. The major averages posted their fourth weekly loss in five weeks and hovered near two-month lows.

Beyond the Fed meeting, there are just a few economic data releases on deck this week, including August housing starts on Tuesday and initial jobless claims on Thursday.