My Writings. My Thoughts.

Monday September 21, 2015

// September 21st, 2015 // Comments Off on Monday September 21, 2015 // Daily News

Oil prices rise as US drilling declines

Reuters
Lucy Nicholson | Reuters

Oil rose by more than 2 percent on Monday after data showed U.S. drilling slowed and a report said $1.5 trillion worth of planned production was uneconomic at current prices.
Crude has halved in value over the last year as soaring global production overwhelmed slowing demand and the much lower prices have now begun to hit drilling, particularly in the United States.
U.S. drillers have cut the number of rigs in operation for three straight weeks.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil was up $1.12 at $48.59 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were trading at $45.81 per barrel, up $1.12.
“The fall in rig counts (is) supporting an otherwise bearish market,” said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report that rig data pointed to a decline in U.S. oil production between the second and fourth quarters of this year of more than 250,000 barrels per day (bpd)
Commerzbank head of commodities research, Eugen Weinberg, said reductions in U.S. production should, eventually, turn oil market fundamentals, giving prices a lift:
“We are confident that the incipient decline of production in the United States will herald a long-term and fundamental bottoming out process on the oil market,” Weinberg said.
Analysts said low prices would have a bigger impact in the longer term as U.S. producers struggled to cut enough costs.
Low prices should have long-term impact on oil production.
“While operators are seeking an average cost reduction of 20-30 percent on projects, supply chain savings through squeezing the service sector will only achieve around 10-15 percent on average,” energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.
“$1.5 trillion of uncommitted spend on new conventional projects and North American unconventional oil is uneconomic at $50 a barrel,” Woodmac added.
Despite such a cut to U.S. spending plans, analysts said prices were expected to remain at low levels for some time as other producers, especially in the Middle East and Russia, kept pumping near record levels.
“Oil producers continue to battle for market share … widening the global oil surplus,” ANZ said on Monday.
The bank said it expected U.S. crude to fall below $40 a barrel over the next six months and to average just $41 next year. It expects Brent to average $46 per barrel in 2016.

Today’s Inspiration

A Gift for Others and for Yourself

by Joyce Meyer – posted September 21, 2015

Forgive, and you will be forgiven.
– Luke 6:37 NKJV

Do you hold unforgiveness toward anyone for any reason? If so, it needs to be eliminated from your heart and mind right away because it’s keeping you in bondage. You may be thinking, Well, Joyce, that’s easy for you to say. You haven’t been hurt like I have. That is true, but I have been hurt in life to a very deep degree. I was abused, abandoned, rejected, blamed, lied about, misunderstood, and betrayed by family and friends, and I allowed the enemy to fill my heart with hatred for those who hurt me. But when I began to learn about love, I moved from hatred to bitterness to mild resentment and finally to freedom, which only comes through forgiveness. The Lord graciously brought restitution into my life.

God promises to bring justice into our lives and to give us a double reward for our former shame, pain, and unfair treatment (see Isaiah 61:7). When we try to bring justice ourselves through vengeful acts, we only prevent God from working on our behalf.

The absolute key to unlocking the recompense of God for past hurts, however, is to do things His way and not our own. We are to love our enemies, pray for them, and bless them. If you have been hurt, God knows all about it, and He has a plan for your vindication. He, and He alone, is the vindicator (Hebrews 10:30).

Love Others Today: Do you need to extend forgiveness to someone? Make the choice to do so right now. It will be a gift to that person and a gift to you.

Thursday September 17, 2015

// September 17th, 2015 // Comments Off on Thursday September 17, 2015 // Daily News

When the Fed raises rates, here’s what happens
CNBC.com

A rate hike will come and the bull market will stumble, bond yields will climb and the economy will slip into a recession.

This we know.

What we don’t know is how long all of that will take and how long it will last.

For the economy specifically, history offers little guide about timing. A recession has come as quickly as 11 months after the first rate hike and as long as 86 months.
The Federal Reserve’s aggressiveness in raising rates is often, though not always, a determinant in how the economy and financial assets respond. That’s why officials at the U.S. central bank have stressed so vigorously that investors should not be focused on when it starts raising rates but rather the trajectory of how long it will take to normalize.
There are, indeed, multiple variables at play. In the end, however, market participants may find that all the rate-hike fuss may have been overdone.
“The first hike from the Fed since the global financial crisis will inevitably be interpreted by some as signaling the end of the era of ‘cheap money,’ ” Julian Jessop, chief global economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients. “In contrast, we do not expect the gradual return of U.S. interest rates to more normal but still low levels to be the seismic shock that many seem to fear.”
That’s not to say there won’t be effects, however. Here’s a look at how some areas of the economy could react, based on historical trend.
As the market has seen over the past month or so, anticipation of rate hikes can make things volatile for a while. Once the hike hits, though, the impact is not as dramatic.
“It does seem there is a trend for equity returns to stall 12-24 months after the first hike, which again perhaps reflects the lag in monetary policy,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a recent study of what happens after the Fed hikes.
More specifically, the market over the past 35 years or so is most often up sharply—about 14 percent—heading into the rate hike, fairly flat in the 250 days after (average gain of 2.6 percent) then back to normal once 500 days have passed, with average return in the past six cycles of 14.4 percent, according to a recent analysis Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, posted on Barron’s.
Deutsche said the impact on stocks tends to get more pronounced later in the rate-hiking cycle and returns begin to diminish.

Today’s Inspiration

Carried in His Arms

by Joyce Meyer – posted September 17, 2015

I will say of the Lord, He is my Refuge and my Fortress, my God; on Him I lean and rely, and in Him I [confidently] trust!
– Psalm 91:2

At various points in our lives, all of us feel we’re getting “out of our depth” or “in over our heads.” There are problems all around: A job is lost, someone dies, there is strife in the family, or a bad report comes from the doctor. When these things happen, our temptation is to panic because we feel we’ve lost control.

But think about it: The truth is that we’ve never been in control when it comes to life’s most crucial elements. The only thing that holds us up—and the thing we can be most grateful for—is the grace of God, our Father, and that won’t change. God is never out of His depth, and therefore, we’re safe when we’re in life’s “deep end” because we can trust that He will always carry us in His arms.

Prayer of Thanks
Thank You, Father, that You are a refuge for me. I know that because You are with me, I can feel safe and secure. Thank You that no matter how difficult life may seem, I can be at peace because You will never let me go.

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