My Writings. My Thoughts.
Monday February 1, 2016
// February 1st, 2016 // Comments Off on Monday February 1, 2016 // Daily News
Oil falls on China data, fading prospect of OPEC action
Reuters
Oil fell as much as 4 percent on Monday as weak economic data from China, the world’s largest energy consumer, weighed on prices and an OPEC source played down talk of an emergency meeting to stem the decline.
Cina’s manufacturing sector contracted at the fastest pace since 2012 in January, adding to worries about demand from the world’s second-biggest economy at a time when the market is already weighed down by a large supply overhang.
“The weak China PMI (purchasing managers index) is driving down prices because China weighs on the entire commodities sector from the demand side of the equation,” said Carsten Fritsch, senior oil analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
Brent April crude futures were down 96 cents at $35.03 a barrel at 8:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT), off a session low of $34.85. The March Brent contract, which expired on Friday, settled at $34.74 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down $1.30, or 3.8 percent, at $32.32 a barrel, having earlier fallen as low as $32.19.
A senior OPEC source told a Saudi Arabian newspaper it was too early to talk about an emergency meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Oil prices jumped last week after Russian energy officials said they had received proposals from OPEC lynchpin Saudi Arabia on managing output and were ready to talk.
“We do not expect such a cut will occur unless global growth weakens sharply from current levels, which is not our economists’ forecast,” investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report.
Workers drill at the Saudi Aramco oil field complex facilities at Shaybah in the Rub’ al Khali desert in Shaybah, Saudi Arabia. (File Photo).
How long can Saudi Arabia live with $30 oil?
OPEC member Iran, which last month was allowed to return fully to markets after years of sanctions, is so far unwilling to participate in cuts.
Partly because of Iran’s return, OPEC production has jumped to 32.60 million barrels per day (bpd), its highest in years, adding to a global glut of over 1 million bpd in excess of demand, which has pulled down oil prices 70 percent since mid-2014.
Oil exports from OPEC member Iraq rose in January, its oil ministry said on Monday, reaching an average of 3.285 million bpd, up from 3.215 million bpd the previous month.
However overall production from its southern fields fell last month, slipping from a record high reached at the end of last year.
BMI Research has cut its oil price outlook for Brent to a 2016 average of $40 per barrel from $42.50 previously, and said WTI would average $39.50.
“Counteracting oil’s upside momentum in 2016 will be the weakness of the Chinese yuan, lingering concerns over global economic growth and the well-stocked inventories of crude and fuels,” BMI said, adding that a gradual price rise was expected in the second half of the year.
In a sign investors are speculating on an oil rebound, data from the InterContinental Exchange showed net long positions in Brent rose the most in four years last week.
“Part of the bullish action in Brent crude oil … is from fundamentals in Asia where parts of the oil complex are supportive with very strong China imports of NGL (natural gas liquids) and Naphtha, which has put these products in backwardation both in Asia and in Europe,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets in Oslo.
Today’s Inspiration
One Good Choice After Another
by Joyce Meyer – posted February 01, 2016
Let your eyes look straight ahead; fix your gaze directly before you.
—Proverbs 4:25 NIV
Are you enjoying the life and blessings of God in your everyday life? Or have you made a series of choices resulting in disappointment, pain, or feeling that everything you do requires great effort and produces little reward? Don’t spend your time and energy mourning all the bad decisions you have made; just start making good ones. There is hope for you!
The way to overcome the results of a series of bad choices is through a series of right choices. The only way to walk out of trouble is to do the opposite of whatever you did to get into trouble—one choice at a time.
Maybe the circumstances of your life right now are the direct result of a series of bad choices you have made. You may be in debt because you have made a lot of bad choices with money. You may be lonely because of a series of bad choices in relationships or in the way you treat people. You may be sick because of a series of unhealthy choices: eating junk food, not getting enough rest, or abusing your body through working too much and not having enough balance in your life.
You cannot make a series of bad choices that result in significant problems and then make one good choice and expect all the results of all those bad choices to go away. You did not get into deep trouble through one bad choice; you got into trouble through a series of bad choices. If you really want your life to change for the better, you will need to make one good choice after another, over a period of time, just as consistently as you made the negative choices that produced negative results.
No matter what kind of trouble or difficulty you find yourself in, you can still have a blessed life. You cannot do anything about what is behind you, but you can do a great deal about what lies ahead of you. God is a redeemer, and He will always give you another chance.
Trust in Him: If you have a situation that is too big for you to solve, then you are material for a miracle. Invite God to get involved, trust in and follow His directions, make one good choice after another, and you will see amazing results.
January 22, 2016
// January 20th, 2016 // Comments Off on January 22, 2016 // Daily News
Dow briefly falls 400, S&P at lowest level since late 2014 as oil slides
CNBC.com
U.S. stocks traded sharply lower Wednesday as further decline in oil prices pressured global equities.
The Dow Jones industrial average briefly fell more than 400 points in morning trade with IBM contributing the most to declines. The Nasdaq composite underperformed, trading more than 3 percent lower.
The S&P 500 fell more than 2.5 percent to trade around 1,825, near its lowest since October 2014.
The number of new Nasdaq lows surpassed the late August total of 765, the highest since Nov. 21, 2008, when 1,211 Nasdaq stocks made 52-week lows, according to Reuters.
More than 1,000 NYSE-listed stocks hit 52-week lows in the first 20 minutes of trading, the most since Aug. 24, Reuters reported.
WTI briefly fell below $27 a barrel to hit its lowest level since September 2003.
“Oil is certainly weighing on investors’ psyche,” said Eric Wiegand, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank Private Client Reserve. “It’s the absence of growth. The economic data we’ve seen out of the U.S. has been mixed. It really comes to where is growth likely to take hold.”
“Our premise is markets will follow the direction of earnings to the extent that we see some earnings growth and that may come from reduced volatility in currencies,” he said.
U.S. crude oil futures for February, which expires after the close Wednesday, traded more than 5 percent lower to below $27 a barrel as of 10:55 a.m. ET. The March contract traded more than 4.5 percent lower near $28.15 a barrel.
“Obviously we’re in the throes of an environment where sentiment is not positive about risk assets, so it takes very little to put pressure … Pressure coming from falling oil prices continues to serve as a cues for equities to follow suit,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.
European stocks traded more than 3 percent lower. Asian stocks closed deep in the red, with the Nikkei 225 down 3.7 percent to end more than 20 percent below its 52-week intraday high, in bear market territory.
Oil refinery and storage Australia
US crude dips below $27 as supply glut persists
Traders in the 10-year bond options pit at the Chicago Board of Trade signal orders.
Safe haven buying pushes 10-year Treasury below 2%
Traders have been watching the S&P 500’s August low of 1,867. The index broke below that level in intraday trade Tuesday and Friday, but closed above. U.S. stock markets were closed Monday for a holiday.
“The S&P futures are decisively below their August low this morning in a bearish development,” BTIG Chief Technical Strategist Katie Stockton said in a Wednesday morning note. “The inability of the market to sustain yesterday morning’s strength is a message — downside momentum is strong enough to maintain oversold conditions.”
“This is characteristic of a downtrend, as opposed to a correction,” she said. “There are times at which the contrarian extremes in our market internal measures are no longer bullish, even from a short-term perspective, and there currently appears to be risk of that.”
In economic news, the December U.S. CPI showed a 0.1 percent decline. Ex-food and energy, the index rose 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent for three straight months, according to Reuters. In the 12 months through December, this so-called core CPI rose 2.1 percent, the largest gain since July 2012, after climbing 2.0 percent in November.
Building Permits fell 3.9 percent in December. Housing Starts fell 2.5 percent but the seasonally adjusted annual pace remained above a 1 million.
Dow futures traded about 250 points lower after the data and a slight recovery in oil. Earlier, Dow futures were off more than 300 points.
“Today’s data on CPI and housing starts … were soft in both cases, continuing to support a case that the Fed will continue to lower its dot plot,” Luschini said.
Treasury yields held lower, with the 2-year yield near 0.81 percent and the 10-year yield at 1.96 percent, as of 10:53 a.m. ET.
The U.S. dollar index held a touch lower against major world currencies, with the euro near $1.09 and the yen at 116.33 yen against the greenback.
“CPI fell even though the core rate remained (relatively) unchanged,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial. “I think if this continues the Fed may have to change course.”
“There’s no question the markets are oversold. You look at the earnings, they’re basically coming in on target,” he said. “What the market is missing here is a real climactic sell-off that could bring us to capitulation. I’m not sure it happens today, but we’re getting closer to it.”
In corporate news, Goldman Sachs reported earnings that beat expectations on both lines. However, profit fell for a third-straight quarter, hit by a $5 billion settlement of crisis-era legal claims. The stock fell more than 2 percent in mid-morning trade.
F5 Networks and SLM are both set to report after the bell.
“Earnings much more in the forefront of investor attention this week. We’ve had the large financials generally meeting or exceeding expectations, but not able to resurrect the sentiment in the market,” Wiegand said.
Today’s Inspiration
Acknowledge God
by Joyce Meyer – posted January 20, 2016
In all your ways know, recognize, and acknowledge Him, and He will direct and make straight and plain your paths.
—Proverbs 3:6
It is so easy to start making a plan instead of waiting on God to give us His plan. Sometimes we are so entrenched in our own plans that we don’t even sense the leading of the Holy Spirit. But the proverb says to acknowledge God in all our ways, and that means to care about what He thinks and submit our plans to Him for approval.
Having a plan is not a bad thing, but we can simply say to God each day, “Lord, I have a plan for today, but I acknowledge You in it. And if You don’t approve of any part of it, then I am willing to change and do what You want.” If you truly care about what God desires, He will direct you in the way you should go if any changes need to be made to your plans.
Power Thought: I acknowledge God in all my plans, and He always guides me.