My Writings. My Thoughts.

Tuesday April 12, 2016

// April 12th, 2016 // Comments Off on Tuesday April 12, 2016 // Daily News

Fed’s Kaplan: US GDP growth likely under 2% for 2016

CNBC.com
Robert Kaplan

Dallas Federal Reserve President Rob Kaplan said Tuesday he’s not too concerned about the slowing economic growth in the first quarter, and the U.S. economy is likely to grow at just under 2 percent for the year.
The financial turmoil at the beginning of the year may have had more of psychological impact on consumers than previously thought, Kaplan told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
The path to normalizing rates is not an easy one, he said, arguing the next five years are going to be as complex to navigate as the past five years.
Kaplan sees an interest rate hike in the not-too-distant future, provided gross domestic product numbers recover as he believes they will.
In a speech Monday, Kaplan said it would be too soon to hike interest rates this month, but he expressed an openness to a possible increase in June. He’s not a voting member of the Fed’s policymaking committee this year.
Many economists expect a June rate hike, but the futures market has been more cautious, looking to perhaps December as the next tightening.
The Fed raised rates for the first time in more than nine years in December. At the time, central bankers predicted four hikes for 2016, but after holding steady in March, policymakers projected only two increases this year.
The December rate hike was not a mistake, Kaplan said. There are reasons for the Fed to be patient because slowing global growth impacts the U.S., Kaplan told CNBC.
Kaplan took over at the Dallas Fed in the fall, following the retirement of Richard Fisher, who served 10 years at the helm. During his 23 years at Goldman Sachs, Kaplan served in various capacities, including vice chairman.
Monetary policy can’t fix everything, Kaplan said, calling for Washington to get past the gridlock of recent years and put forth fiscal policy.
He said there’s a cost to excessively low rates such as squeezing savers looking for returns.

Today’s Inspiration

High Praises of God

by Joyce Meyer – posted April 12, 2016

Let the saints be joyful in the glory and beauty [which God confers upon them]; let them sing for joy upon their beds. Let the high praises of God be in their throats and a two-edged sword in their hands.
—Psalm 149:5-6

We should form a habit of thanking and praising God as soon as we wake up each morning. While we are still lying in bed, let’s give thanks and fill our minds with Scripture.

Praise defeats the devil quicker than any other battle plan. Praise is an invisible garment that we put on and it protects us from defeat and negativity in our minds. But it must be genuine, heartfelt praise, not just lip service or a method being tried to see if it works. We praise God for the promises in His Word and for His goodness.

Worship is a battle position! As we worship God for Who He is and for His attributes, for His ability and might, we draw closer to Him and the enemy is defeated.

We can never be too thankful! Thank God all day long and remember the many things He has done for you.

God never loses a battle. He has a definite battle plan, and when we follow Him, we will always win.

Thursday April 7, 2016

// April 7th, 2016 // Comments Off on Thursday April 7, 2016 // Daily News

Trump right? SocGen bear sees ‘imminent’ recession
CNBC.com

A flurry of economists might have poured cold water on claims of a “very massive recession” in the United States by Donald Trump, but the Republican presidential front-runner might have just found someone to support his pessimistic view.
Albert Edwards, the notoriously bearish analyst at the French bank Societe Generale, released a note on Thursday highlighting that his “failsafe recession indicator” had stopped flashing amber and had turned to red.
“Newly released U.S. whole economy profits data show a gut wrenching slump. Whole economy profits never normally fall this deeply without a recession unfolding. And with the U.S. corporate sector up to its eyes in debt,” he said in the note.
Corporate profits in the U.S. are key for Edwards as a driver of the economic cycle. He looks at U.S. whole economy profits before tax and focuses on domestic non-financial companies. He says these are currently leading the business investment cycle and, ultimately, the overall economy into recession.
“Whole economy profits data give a wider and cleaner estimate of the underlying profits environment than the heavily doctored pro-forma quoted company profits data,” he said in the note.
Federal Reserve tightening may not be a necessary condition to catalyze a recession, according to Edwards, who believes that the deep profits downturn is sufficient in itself to push the U.S. economy overboard. He adds that the economy will “surely be swept away by a tidal wave of corporate default” and U.S. corporate debt should be avoided, even more so than the “ridiculously overvalued equity market.”
On Saturday, business magnate Trump predicted the country is on course for a “very massive recession.” In an interview with The Washington Post he warned of the combination of high unemployment and an overvalued stock market.
The following days saw a list of names deride his comments including Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York, and Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University Channel Islands in Camarillo. Mohamed El-Erian, the Allianz chief economic advisor, sees a 30 percent chance of a recession next year, with a slowdown even less likely this year.
Donald Trump, president and chief executive of Trump Organization Inc. and 2016 Republican presidential candidate, speaks during town hall event at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida.
El-Erian told CNBC on Monday that even if a recession looks imminent, the president’s power to curb it is limited by the other branches of government.
Edwards, meanwhile, believes his “Ice Age” thesis—economic cycles that deteriorate in ever decreasing circles—is drawing ever closer to its final stages. While his bearish thoughts and predictions are widely read by colleagues and rivals at fellow banking organizations, they do not always come true.
In September 2012, he announced the U.S. was in recession and Wall Street would soon react, and warned of an “ultimate” death cross for the S&P 500—where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day trend line. Instead the S&P 500 continued to rally, and has gained around 40 percent since Edwards’ pronouncement.
In November 2013 and in March 2014 he also released notes that predicted imminent U.S recessions and spoke of declining U.S. profits.

Today’s Inspiration

Imperfect, but Perfectly Loved

by Joyce Meyer – posted April 07, 2016

There is no fear in love [dread does not exist], but full-grown (complete, perfect) love turns fear out of doors and expels every trace of terror!
—1 John 4:18

We cannot love ourselves unless we realize how much God loves us, and if we don’t love ourselves, we cannot love other people. We cannot maintain good, healthy relationships without this foundation of love in our lives.

By the time I met the man I have been married to since 1967, I was desperate for love but did not know how to receive it, even when it was available. My husband, Dave, really did love me, but I found myself constantly deflecting his love due to the way I felt about myself down deep inside. As I entered into a serious and committed relationship with God, through Jesus Christ, I began to learn about God’s love. But it took a long time to fully accept it.

When you feel unlovable, it is hard to get it through your head and down into your heart that God loves you perfectly—even though you are not perfect and never will be as long as you are on the earth.

There is only one thing you can do with a free gift: receive it and be grateful. I urge you to take a step of faith right now and say out loud, “God loves me unconditionally, and I receive His love!” You may have to say it a hundred times a day, like I did for months, before it finally sinks in, but when it does it will be the happiest day of your life.

To know that you are loved by someone you can trust is the best and most comforting feeling in the world. God will not only love you that way, but He will also provide other people who will truly love you. When He does provide, be sure to remain thankful for those people. Having people who genuinely love you is one of the most precious gifts in the world.

Trust in Him: You won’t be able to receive God’s love until you trust Him. Take a step of faith right now and say out loud, “God loves me unconditionally, and I receive His love!” Say it as many times as you need to until you believe it.

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