My Writings. My Thoughts.

Friday July 8, 2016

// July 8th, 2016 // Comments Off on Friday July 8, 2016 // Daily News

Gold to $1,500? One bank is ahead of the rest with its bet on bullion

CNBC.com
A slew of bullish bets on gold were announced following the shock result of the U.K.’s referendum on its EU membership, but one investment bank has just given an even more generous prediction for the future price of the precious metal.
A global research team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch is calling for gold to rise 10 percent between now and the end of next year and expects it to close in on $1,500 per troy ounce, from its current price of $1,355.
“The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change,” the team, led by Michael Widmer, said in a report released on Friday morning.
“We called a bottom in gold in February and Brexit reinforces our view. As such we are upgrading next year’s gold price forecast from $1,325 per ounce to $1,475 per ounce.”
Bullion is often seen as a safe haven in times of economic stress. The non-yielding asset is also seen as a solid bet when yields are being suppressed by aggressive monetary policy, something that investors might have to carry on persevering following the Brexit vote in the U.K.
The Bank of England has already hinted at a rate cut this summer and the Bank of Japan may ramp up its own stimulus with the yen soaring higher and diminishing the benefits a weaker currency may have had for its export-focused companies.
“The current uncertainty also suggests that an accelerated rate hiking cycle is unlikely, so interest rates globally are set to remain low, which in turn reduces the opportunity costs of holding a non-yielding asset like gold,” the investment bank said.
Retail investors also buy gold to protect their savings against inflation which some worry can be stoked by quantitative easing programs from central banks. U.K.-based online bullion trader BullionVault reported a record £30 million ($39 million) of gold and silver trading on its exchange on “Brexit Friday.”
Gold hit more than two-year highs on Wednesday this week and was eyeing its sixth week of gains on Friday. The prediction of a 10 percent price surge from Bank of America Merrill Lynch is bullish but fairly muted compared to some other analysts. Barry Dawes of Paradigm Securities told CNBC Friday that he expects it to reach $1,500 an ounce by the end of this year and didn’t rule out the possibility of it testing the record highs of $1,900 an ounce seen in 2011.
“Over the last few years we have seen really strong demand out of Asia and that has really sucked all the readily available gold out of the West and it’s tightened the market up. Brexit to me is a sideshow,” Dawes said.
Others are more cautious with their estimates. Societe Generale analysts believe gold could reach $1,350 per ounce in the early part of next year but then drift lower. UBS sees an average price of $1,400 per ounce across 2017. Meanwhile, Jeffrey Currie, the global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC in an interview last month that the upside for gold is rather limited from here.

Today’s Inspiration

The Heart of an Eagle

by Joyce Meyer – posted July 08, 2016

That is why I would remind you to stir up (rekindle the embers of, fan the flame of, and keep burning) the [gracious] gift of God, [the inner fire] that is in you.
—2 Timothy 1:6

Do you ever feel like an eagle in a chicken yard? You know in your heart that there is much more within you than you are experiencing and expressing in your life right now. You feel certain God has a great purpose for your life—and you cannot escape or ignore the inner urge to “go for it.”

I encourage you today to fan the flame inside you. Fan it until it burns brightly. Never give up on the greatness for which you were created, and never try to hide your uniqueness. Instead, be thankful for it, and be thankful that God has something special in store. Realize your hunger for adventure is God-given; wanting to try something new is a wonderful desire; and embracing life and aiming high is what you were made for. You are an eagle!

Prayer of Thanks: Father, thank You for the dreams and desires You have placed in my heart. Thank You that You have a destiny for me. Today, I will dare to dream of all the wonderful things You have in Your plan for my life.

Thursday June 30, 2016

// June 30th, 2016 // Comments Off on Thursday June 30, 2016 // Daily News

How Brexit could still spook the oil market

CNBC.com

Trading in commodity markets might have resumed relative normality following Brexit turbulence, but one investment bank has detailed the downside risk that the oil price could still face.
“We believe the increase in macro-economic uncertainty (following the Brexit vote) raises downside risks to global GDP (gross domestic product) growth expectations,” a global commodities research team at JPMorgan, led by Scott Speaker, said in a note Wednesday.
WTI futures had been on a steady path upwards in 2016 after a bruising two years. Nonetheless, the shock result last Friday morning saw prices plunge by around $4 on concerns that it could impact global growth.
JPMorgan has actually upped its forecasts on the commodity. Its Brent and WTI price forecasts for the third quarter of and fourth quarter of 2016 are now $53 a barrel and $55 a barrel, respectively. Its 2017 Brent and WTI forecasts are lifted to around $56.75 a barrel with a figure of $62 a barrel for the end of next year.
It believes that oil balances have tightened up following a surge in unplanned outages, but suggests structural conditions in the market will further keep the market in check for that latter part of 2016. However, the bank had a warning for clients that could yet mean its estimates will prove incorrect.
“The unexpected U.K. (referendum) result could yet trigger a more substantial downgrade to economic growth,” it said.
U.S. corporate profits remain under pressure, according to the bank, which stated that earnings compared to U.S. company shares prices had fallen since the start of the year. Should the increased level of uncertainty precipitate a pullback in capital expenditure plans across the corporate sector then such a dynamic could yet lead to a “deterioration in the growth outlook”, it added.
“Current high frequency estimates by J.P. Morgan Economics Research indicate that there is a 34 percent chance of a recession starting within the next 12 months,” it said.
And weakening global growth would likely result in dipping demand for the commodity, thus leading to a pullback in prices. Although the bank states that global GDP growth would need to slow to around 0.8 percent for it to interfere with the market rebalancing that it predicts.

Today’s Inspiration

God’s Righteous Friend

by Joyce Meyer – posted June 30, 2016

For our sake He made Christ [virtually] to be sin Who knew no sin, so that in and through Him we might become [endued with, viewed as being in, and examples of] the righteousness of God [what we ought to be, approved and acceptable and in right relationship with Him, by his goodness].
—2 Corinthians 5:21

I cannot think of anything more awesome than being a friend of God. There is nothing I would rather hear God say than, “Joyce Meyer is My friend.” I do not want Him to say, “Joyce Meyer—knows all the prayer principles; she can quote dozens of Bible verses; she sounds very eloquent when she prays; but she really doesn’t know Me at all and we are not really friends.” I want to know that God thinks of me as His friend, and I believe you long for Him to think of you that way, too. Through Jesus Christ, we have a right to be comfortable with God, to hear His voice, and to go boldly to the throne of grace to get the help we need in plenty of time to meet our needs and the needs of others (see Hebrews 4:16).

One of the best things you can ever do is to develop your friendship with God. Jesus has made you righteous through the blood He shed at the cross, so there is no reason you cannot approach God as boldly and as naturally as you would your best friend on Earth. Remember, friendship with God takes an investment of time and energy to develop. But also remember that as your friendship deepens, your ability to hear God’s voice increases. A growing, vibrant, increasingly intimate friendship with God will naturally lead to increasingly effective communication with Him.

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »