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Thursday April 2, 2015

// April 2nd, 2015 // Comments Off on Thursday April 2, 2015 // Daily News

Goldman Sachs on oil: US needs to cut, not OPEC

Matt Clinch | @mattclinch81
CNBC.com
The onus for restoring the oil price back to an equilibrium lies squarely on the shoulders of countries like the U.S. and not on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a top Goldman Sachs analyst told CNBC.
Michele Della Vigna, head of European energy research at Goldman Sachs, said non-OPEC oil producers had created the oversupply in the market which has weighed on prices.
“I think the market has realized that where we need to find the adjustment is onshore U.S. and that’s where the market is focused,” he told CNBC Thursday.
“The adjustment is starting to happen there. Clearly an OPEC cut would help getting to the equilibrium faster, but at the end of the day, it is non-OPEC that needs to sort out the oversupply that it has created.”
Weak global demand and booming U.S. shale oil production are seen as two key reasons behind oil’s price plunge, which has fallen around 50 percent since mid-June last year. OPEC’s reluctance to cut its output at its last meeting in November has also weighed on the commodity.
OPEC, a group of 12 major oil producers which accounts for 40 percent of the world’s crude oil output, has continually iterated that the organization has no intention to meet again until June. But Della Vigna said he believes a cut in production at this meeting is even less likely than at November’s talks.
OPEC countries are able to extract oil from the ground at a cheaper cost than U.S. shale firms, and there has been speculation that the two industries could be playing a “game of chicken” before cutting back to ease oversupply.
So far, the U.S. has bared the brunt of the cut in production, with data from the EIA (Energy Information Administration) Wednesday showing a fall in the amount of rigs that are in operation and a drop in U.S. output for the first time since late December.
This helped snap a three-day losing streak for oil, with gains of around $2. But the commodity edged lower again on Thursday morning, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures falling 0.13 percent to 49.95 a barrel by 9:00 a.m. London time, and Brent crude futures falling 0.2 percent to $56.91 a barrel.

Today’s Inspiration

Sincere Faith

by Joyce Meyer – posted April 02, 2015

Whereas the object and purpose of our instruction and charge is love, which springs from pure heart and a gold (clear) conscience and sincere (unfeigned) faith. 1 Timothy 1:5

We do not want to be childish in our faith or in our praying; we want to be childlike. The Lord does not want us to complicate our relationship with Him. He searches for sincere hearts, because He is a God of hearts. He wants us to pray in faith, which is not an emotion, but a spiritual force that impacts the unseen realm. God is a god of order, but not a God of rules and regulations and laws; and He does not want us to wear ourselves out trying to pray long, drawn-out prayers that are not Spirit-led or that follow a formula and require a certain posture. That would be legalistic and it always takes the life of our relationship with God. The Spirit makes alive, but the law kills (see 2 Corinthians 3:6).

When we follow the leading of the Holy Spirit, our communication with God will be filled with life. We will have no need to watch the clock making sure we put the right amount of time in, as many people do. When we approach talking and listening to God as an obligation and a work of our own flesh, five minutes can seem live an hour, but when our prayer is energized by the Holy Spirit, an hour can seem like five minutes. I like to pray and fellowship with God until I feel full and content. Try to relax and enjoy your time with God and it will be very rewarding.

Wednesday April 1, 2015

// April 1st, 2015 // Comments Off on Wednesday April 1, 2015 // Daily News

After huge Q1, here’s what the dollar will do in Q2

Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex
CNBC.com

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s moves against a basket of six other currencies but is heavily weighted toward the euro/dollar rose nearly 9 percent in the the first three months of the year, for the best quarter since Q3 of 2008.
And some traders think the real dollar rally could just be getting started.
“Clearly, the dollar strength has been the key driver across asset classes in the first quarter,” said Rich Ross, technical analyst with Evercore ISI. “And when you look at that short-term chart, there’s very little to suggest that the trend of dollar strength is ending.”
Ross said the chart has formed a “nice base of support,” which should set up the index for a retest of the 100 level.
And though he doesn’t find the long-term picture to be quite as bullish, Ross said that given how bad the chart of the euro/dollar currency pair looks, “you want to continue to buy the dollar, and I think we’re going to see the strength continue into the second quarter.”
The greenback has been rallying this year as the U.S. economy outperforms much of the world, and as investors prepare for a Federal Reserve rate hike at some point in 2015, which would create demand for dollars, as it will increase the yield that dollar holders receive.
But for Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX strategy at CitiFX, the economic data could well pose a problem for the dollar.
“I think that the dollar may struggle a bit at the beginning of the second quarter,” Englander said.
If Friday’s employment report is weak, “it could be enough to make investors concerned that the Q1 weakness is now showing up in employment. That could suggest that what we saw in Q1 is not an aberration, it’s potentially the beginning of a more extended slowdown—and that would be dollar-negative.”
Additionally, Englander noted that “the market is very long dollars—still.”
For those reasons, the strategist predicted that “it goes up, but there is probably more upside risk in the second half of Q2 than right at the beginning. I don’t think the divergence trade is done, but it may be pausing for a bit.”
“It’s clearly a consensus trade. It’s what everyone is living off of right now,” agreed Stacey Gilbert, head of derivative strategy with Susquehanna.
Indeed, Gilbert noticed some interesting bearish trades on the PowerShares Bullish U.S. Dollar ETF (ticker symbol: UUP), perhaps as traders figure that “given it’s such a consensus trade … there may be a drop” between now and June.

Today’s Inspiration

Entering the Rest of God

by Joyce Meyer – posted April 01, 2015

Behold, I long for Your precepts; in Your righteousness give me renewed life…I will keep Your law continually, forever and ever [hearing, receiving, loving, and obeying it].And I will walk at liberty and at ease, for I have sought and inquired for [and desperately required] Your precepts. Psalm 119:40, 44-45

If you truly love the Word of God—if you hear it, receive it, and obey it—you will have freedom and live “at ease.” In other words, life will not be hard, frustrating, or difficult. Your joy is full when you believe God’s promises for your life and obey His commands.

The Bible teaches that those who disobey God’s instructions, who don’t listen to His Word, do not enter into the place of rest He offers to them. So when you feel frustrated or upset or if you have lost your peace and your joy, ask yourself, Am I believing God’s Word?

The only way we will ever be free from struggling is to believe the Word and obey whatever Jesus puts in our hearts to do. Believing God’s Word delivers us from struggling so that we rest in the promises of God. The Word says, For we who have believed (adhered to and trusted in and relied on God) do enter that rest (Hebrews 4:3).

If your thoughts have become negative and you are full of doubt, it is because you have stopped hearing, receiving, and obeying God’s Word. As soon as you start believing God’s Word, your joy will return and you will be “at ease” again. And that place of rest in Him is where God wants you to be every day of your life.