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Tuesday May 12, 2015

// May 12th, 2015 // Comments Off on Tuesday May 12, 2015 // Daily News

Wall Street seen sharply lower as bond falloff weighs
Katy Barnato | @KatyBarnato

CNBC.com

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a sharply lower Wall Street open on Tuesday, as global stocks declined on the back of a sharp fall in bond prices.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down about 110 points, after earlier falling about 140 points, as benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds yielded over 2.3 percent for the first time in five months.
“The selling pressure is probably predicated on the rise in interest rates,” said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth, citing ongoing concerns about Greece and U.S. equity valuations as other negative factors.
European equities slid in trade on Tuesday, with the benchmark German DAX index around 2.2 percent lower.
Greece emptied an emergency IMF holding account to repay 750 million euros ($839 million) due to the international lender, a Greek central bank official said in a Reuters report. The move avoided default but underscored the dire state of the country’s finances.
Little major economic data is due on Tuesday, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey in the morning and the federal budget for April, which is seen showing an increased surplus, expected at 2:00 p.m. ET.
U.S. small business confidence increased in April with owners in the energy field surprisingly bullish about capital expenditure and hiring plans, further supporting views that economic growth is rebounding after a dismal first quarter, Reuters said. The National Federation of Independent Business said its Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.7 points to 96.9 last month.

Today’s Inspiration

Seasons Change

by Joyce Meyer – posted May 12, 2015

He changes the times and the seasons. Daniel 2:21

Years ago, I enjoyed a good job as part of a church staff. I had a thriving ministry, a regular paycheck, and plenty of opportunities what I loved and felt called to do. Then there came a time when spoke to me about leaving that job and taking my ministry “to the north, south, east, and west.” I heard Him say, “This season in your life is complete; I am finished with you in this place.”

In my heart, I knew God had spoken. Nevertheless, I had a mixture of excitement and fear about starting my own ministry. I wanted to venture beyond what I had known to that point, but I was afraid of making a mistake and losing what I had. I wanted to see what God would do, but I was afraid to take such a big step into unknown territory.

Sometimes God gets finished with something and we keep hanging on to it. My spirit wanted to step out, but my flesh wanted to stay. I had a lot of security in the position God was calling me to leave, and I didn’t want to give it up. But, eventually I did obey Him and today I enjoy ministry around the world. Remember that God changes things and when He does we must be willing to follow His leading.

Monday May 11, 2015

// May 11th, 2015 // Comments Off on Monday May 11, 2015 // Daily News

Stocks could rally this week
Patti Domm | @pattidomm
CNBC.com

Stocks could march into record territory in the week ahead—unless the economy starts to look too strong, or then again, too weak.
Friday’s April employment report was so so, showing a rebound in job growth to 223,000, but slower wage growth at just a tenth of a percent. That improvement over March’s 85,000 jobs allayed some market concerns about a sluggish economy, but wage growth was just weak enough for traders to bet the Fed will hold off from raising interest rates a little longer.
Read MoreFewer jobs, strong dollar put Fed in an awkward corner
“That puts stocks in a hard place, where good news could be bad and bad news could be bad … I think it’s a tight window for Goldilocks, given where earnings are,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Markets. “Goldilocks” is used to describe a market scenario where the data are not too strong to cause overheating, or in this case to encourage a Fed rate hike, or is not so weak as to signal a real economic slowdown.
“Part of me says the optimism has to build again, before we correct. It (S&P 500) could break through 2,200, and we’ll get all excited, and then we get hit,” Paulsen said. “In the stock market, there’s some degree of complacency but there’s not really optimism.”
The Dow and S&P 500 ended the week with gains on the back of Friday’s strong rally, despite several selling waves. The Dow rose 1.5 percent to 18,191, not far from its all-time high. The S&P was up about 1.4 percent at 2,116, which was near its all-time high. Financial stocks were the best performers, up 1.6 percent for the week. Energy and telecommunications were the worst, down 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.
“The bias is certainly to the upside for stock prices through the summer,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG. “The economy is bouncing back, earnings were better than anticipated, interest rates are low.” While the market does not expect a June hike, Greenhaus said market expectations for a rate rise in September have fallen to about 20 percent and less than 50 percent for a December hike, after the jobs report.
Read More The wage gap: Where does your city stand?
Strategists say it’s the data that could dominate in the week ahead. April retail sales are scheduled to be reported Wednesday, and there’s also PPI inflation data Thursday, and industrial production and consumer sentiment Friday.
Economists in the past week chopped their expectations for the first quarter, and now see a contraction of about a half percent in GDP when the second reading is released. So any data that can illuminate how the second quarter is doing will be important. Expectations have also come down for the second quarter, which is now seen growing at just about 2.5 percent.
“The onus is on the economic data to prove that the first quarter (weakness) was transitory,” said John Canally, economist and market strategist at LPL Financial. “I think the markets have given the economic data a free pass, but now the free pass ends and it’s up to the data to put up or shut up.”
Read More US wholesale stockpiles rose slightly in March
But if that data get too strong and pushes Treasury yields higher, that could start to spook stocks. Markets will also be keeping an eye on Europe after rising German bund yields in the past week helped drive long-end Treasury yields uncomfortably higher for stock investors. The 10-year yield was close to 2.25 percent Wednesday, but dropped to the 2.11 percent area after the employment report Friday before ending the week at 2.14 percent.
In the week ahead, retail sales are the data that matters most to markets. “I think that’s a key report,” said Moody’s Analytics’ chief economist, Mark Zandi. “We’ve been looking for the benefit of lower oil prices to flow through to spending and so far it’s been very modest. Last month, retail sales were OK, certainly better than January and February. But we need to see stronger core, beyond autos and gasoline. It should be 0.4 to 0.5 percent plus to suggest consumers are going out and spending more.”
Zandi expects headline sales to be flat, but up 0.5 percent when eliminating gasoline and auto sales.
Besides the data, there are still a few earnings including Cisco, and retailers Macy’s, Nordstrom and Kohl’s in the week ahead.
Read MorePuerto Rico may run out of cash by Sept: Gov. bank
Earnings had been a big concern for the market, but growth has been better than expected and a robust 67 percent of S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations. According to Thomson Reuters, earnings are now up 2.2 percent for the first quarter for the S&P 500 with about 90 percent of companies reporting. That compares to expectations for a 3 percent decline for the quarter before the earnings season started.
Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. market strategist at RBC, pointed out that companies in the S&P 500 beat estimates by more than 7 percent. “This is entirely out of sync with a maturing economic cycle,” he wrote in a note. Revenues overall fell 3 percent, but without energy, there was a 2 percent gain.
He also noted that domestically oriented stocks (benefiting from a weak dollar) saw earnings rise 9.8 percent, a trend Golub says has been ongoing for 12 quarters and is expected to continue.

Today’s Inspiration

Doing Things God’s Way

by Joyce Meyer – posted May 11, 2015

I am the Way. John 14:6

Many people are hurting so badly, and they are crying out for help. The problem is, they are not willing to receive the help they need from God. No matter how much we may want or need help, we are never going to receive it until we are willing to do things God’s way. In John 14:6, Jesus said, “I am the Way.” What Jesus meant when He said, “I am the Way,” is that He has a certain way of doing things; and if we will submit to His way, everything will work out for us.

But so often we wrestle and struggle with Him, trying to get Him to do things our way. It just won’t work. Countless times have people have stood in front of me at the altar and told me all kinds of terrible things that are going on in their lives and how badly they are hurting, yet they absolutely refuse to do what they are told to do to receive the help they need. Too often people are trying to find some other way to get help rather than by doing things God’s way.

The Bible plainly teaches that if we will learn and act on the Word, God will bless our lives. Let me give you an example. The Bible teaches that we are to live in harmony and peace with others and to forgive those who have done us wrong. If we refuse to do that, what hope do we have of receiving what we need?

I remember how difficult it was for me the first time the Lord told me I had to go to my husband and tell him I was sorry for being rebellious against him. I thought I would die on the spot! I realize that one reason we don’t always do what we are told to do in the Word of God is because it is hard.

If we don’t do what we can do, then God won’t do what we can’t do. If we will do what we can do, God will do what we can’t do. It’s just that simple.