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Friday May 29, 2015

// May 29th, 2015 // Daily News

GDP will be factor for market
CNBC.com

Be it the result of port strikes, weather or some weird seasonal factor, expectations are U.S. growth contracted in the first quarter and just how much could be an important factor in markets Friday.
Economists expect a 1 percent decline in first-quarter GDP, after an original print showed a 0.2 percent gain. That was down from 2.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter.
With the Fed’s promise to decide on interest rate hikes based on economic data, even backward-looking data has become a big deal. The dollar this week has edged ahead, especially against the yen, on expectations of central bank rate increases this year, and each piece of positive data has given it a nudge.
“If GDP comes in decent, it’s going to give it another push,” said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange strategy at BK Asset Management. The dollar rose to a 12 ½-year high against the yen early Thursday but gave up some gains later in the day.
Besides GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, there is also Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. and consumer sentiment at 10 a.m.
“They only care if it’s different than expectations,” said Steve Massocca, managing director of Wedbush Securities, of the GDP revision. “If it’s worse than expectations, that pushes the Fed back. If it’s better than expectations it pulls the Fed forward. It’s a little bit of good news is bad news. … It’s kind of like golf, you want to drive it right down the middle.”
Read MoreFed’s Bullard: GDP targeting a better fix than low rates
This year’s first-quarter GDP has been especially under the spotlight as economists attempted to ascertain whether the economy was facing a temporary setback or something more enduring that could affect the Fed’s decision-making. Many economists blame the weather and the port strike, but also note a lingering weakness that knocked their expectations of a bigger rebound for the second quarter.
CNBC, meanwhile, reported in April that the GDP data are potentially flawed because of unexplained, persistent weakness in the first quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which compiles GDP, has since acknowledged problems and said it has a “multi-pronged action plan” to improve its estimates, including seasonal adjustments. It intends to include new estimates with the release of second-quarter GDP June 30.
Read MoreFirst GDP, now productivity: Another data flaw?
Stocks moved slightly lower Thursday, with the Dow down 36 to 18,126 and the S&P 500 dropping 2 at 2,120. The Nasdaq fell 8 to 5,097, a day after it hit a record high.
U.S. equities took their cue from overseas markets, concerned that the news out of Greece is not as optimistic for a debt deal as markets believed Wednesday. The IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, said there is still a lot of work ahead before a deal could be made with Greece.
“The only ones saying there’s a deal are the Greeks,” said Art Cashin, director of floor operations for UBS at the NYSE. Greece’s government has said it aims to reach a deal with lenders by Sunday.

Today’s Inspiration

Don’t Quit!

by Joyce Meyer – posted May 29, 2015

And let us not lose heart and grow weary and faint in acting nobly and doing right, for in due time and at the appointed season we shall reap, if we do not loosen and relax our courage and faint. Galatians 6:9
Life is a struggle, and the devil is determined to defeat and destroy us. We don’t ever reach the place where we never have to fight. But it’s not just our fight. Jesus is not only with us, but He is for us. He’s at our side to strengthen us and to urge us onward.
“Don’t quit. Don’t give up.” That’s the message we need to hear. I think of the words of Isaiah: Fear not, for I have redeemed you … ; I have called you by your name; you are Mine. When you pass through the waters, I will be with you, and through the rivers, they will not overwhelm you. When you walk through the fire, you will not be burned or scorched, nor will the flame kindle upon you (Isaiah 43:1-2).
This is God’s promise. He doesn’t promise to take us completely out of troubles or hardships, but He does promise to be with us as we go through them. “Fear not,”‘ He says. That’s the message we need to ponder. We don’t need to fear because God is with us. And when God is with us, what is there to worry about?
God, despite my failures, You are with me, encouraging me not to give up. Please help me to remember that, with Your help, I can win. In the name of Jesus, I pray. Amen.