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Friday May 8, 2015

// May 8th, 2015 // Daily News

This contrarian indicator says the oil rally is over
Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex
CNBC.com

Energy stocks have slid in the past three sessions, after a big bounce since mid-March, and the options market could be throwing off signs that the comeback is over for good.
In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs’ options research team wrote: “We recently changed our view from bullish to bearish on energy as option markets show extreme complacency following the sharp rally in the energy complex over the past six weeks.”
Specifically, Goldman found that the prices of bearish put options have fallen considerably, indicating that investors see diminished risk of downside as traders have become far more optimistic. But for Goldman, that’s a clear sign that the energy rally has run out of steam.
“We find options have been a powerful contrarian indicator over the past year,” and once again, it will pay to look the direction that the market isn’t looking, the analysts concluded.
Yet Susquehanna head of derivative strategy Stacey Gilbert says it’s only logical that options prices have fallen.
“There is a sense of complacency, but let’s put the complacency into context,” Gilbert said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “The volatility was substantially higher if you go back over the past six months compared to where it’s pricing everything now … [but] the question becomes, are we having the same type of movement that we’ve had over the past six weeks?”
“If you’re not expecting that type of movement, volatility should be lower,” she added.
Gilbert says the options market is predicting that crude oil will remain range-bound at $50-$70 a barrel, rather than continuing to make massive moves, although implied volatility is still elevated versus recent historical averages.
But to Gilbert, just because the options market is pricing in smaller swings over the next few months than the gargantuan ones the energy market has experienced over the last few months, that doesn’t mean energy stocks are set to sink.

Today’s Inspiration

Trust God’s Timing

by Joyce Meyer – posted May 08, 2015

I trusted in, relied on, and was confident in You, O Lord; I said, You are my God. My times are in Your hands. Psalm 31:14-15

Trust requires you to place your time in God’s hands, believing that His timing is perfect for all things in your life.

Your human nature wants good things to happen in your life now—not later. But as you mature in the Christian life you learn to believe for things not now, but in God’s perfect timing.

Trusting God often means not knowing how God is going to accomplish something and not knowing when He will do it. But not knowing “how and when” stretches your faith and teaches you lessons in trust. Remember: Trust is not inherited; it is learned.

Timing plays an important part in learning to trust God. As you experience His faithfulness over and over, you will give up trusting yourself and place your life in His very capable hands. What a wonderful place to be!