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Tuesday January 24, 2017

// January 24th, 2017 // Comments Off on Tuesday January 24, 2017 // Daily News

There’s a perfect storm coming for the dollar, says chief currency strategist

CNBC.com

There is a fundamental case for the dollar to fall further from here, Unicredit’s chief currency strategist told CNBC’s Squawk Box on Tuesday.
The U.S. currency is hovering around a six-week low after comments leaked on Monday from U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Steve Mnuchin regarding potential short-term hits to the country’s economy from an “excessively strong dollar.”
These remarks are just one factor to suggest the dollar is set to lose further ground in coming months, according to Vasileios Gkionakis, head of global FX strategy at Unicredit.
“I think it is quite overvalued relative to where real rate differentials were suggesting it would go,” Gkionakis said, adding that the dollar’s 30 percent appreciation between the summer of 2014 to the end of 2016 demonstrated that there is already a lot of optimism priced in.
The markets have also misinterpreted the likely effect of stimulus, Gkionakis continued, saying, “I’m not entirely sure the first reaction of the market to the announcement of the Trump policies was entirely sensible and I say this because we have heard about a large infrastructure spending which is likely to put upside pressure on inflation but not necessarily increase productivity.”
Given that the U.S. is currently operating near full capacity and full employment, a large yet short-term fiscal stimulus boost which does not address structural issues, will affect nominal rather than real rates, the strategist said.
“Inflation over the medium term is really a negative for the exchange rate and now you have the new administration trying to talk the exchange rate down so you seem to be getting something like a perfect storm for the dollar over the next year or so,” he explained.
Gkionakis sees more investment potential in the yen which he believes could be a beneficiary of increased political uncertainty and consequent volatility.
He also sounded a bullish note on commodity currencies, namely the Australian and Canadian dollars, but warned of trade policy risk for the latter given the U.S.’s northern neighbor has many trade relationships with it.
The dollar index peaked in early January but has been trending down in recent weeks with some traders suggesting technical factors indicate it may have reached a market top for now.
“I think 2017 is going to be a year where we see a weaker dollar across the board,” Gkionakis concluded.

Today’s Inspiration

The Blame Game

by Joyce Meyer – posted January 24, 2017

No temptation (no trial regarded as enticing to sin), [no matter how it comes or where it leads] has overtaken you and laid hold on you that is not common to man [that is, no temptation or trial has come to you that is beyond human resistance and that is not adjusted and adapted and belonging to human experience, and such as man can bear]. But God is faithful [to His Word and to His compassionate nature], and He [can be trusted] not to let you be tempted and tried and assayed beyond your ability and strength of resistance and power to endure, but with the temptation He will [always] also provide the way out (the means of escape to a landing place), that you may be capable and strong and powerful to bear up under it patiently.
—1 Corinthians 10:13

Years ago, a comedian’s favorite punch line was, “The devil made me do it.” The audience roared. Why did people laugh so hard? Was it because they wanted it to be true? Did they want to absolve themselves of responsibility for their actions by pointing to an outside force?

It’s always easy to blame someone else or outside forces for our actions. We hear people all the time who tell us, “My father never said a kind word to me.” “My cousin abused me.” “People in our neighborhood shunned me because I wore old and patched clothes.” “I never had money when I was growing up, so now as soon as my paycheck comes, it’s gone.”

Those statements are probably true, and they may explain why we suffer. Those are terrible situations, and it’s sad that people should have to go through such pain in their lives.

Yet we don’t have the right to blame other people or circumstances for our behavior. We can’t use them as an excuse to stay in bondage. Christ came to set us free. In the opening verse, Paul makes it clear that all of us have our own set of temptations, and for each of us, the circumstances may be different. But the promise God gives is the certainty of a way to escape, regardless of our circumstances. The escape is provided, but we must make use of it.

On the morning news, the reporter showed a restaurant that had caught on fire. One woman stood within sight of the back exit but she didn’t move. She stood twenty feet away and screamed. A coworker rushed back inside and grabbed her. She fought him, but he finally managed to drag her out.

Isn’t that sometimes how it works with God’s people? We know the way of escape, but we seem paralyzed. Or we blame someone or something for our inability to move. Or we think, Here it is again. I know I should learn how to deal with these situations, but I’ll give in just as I’ve always given in. I’m too weak to deal with this right now.

Our weakness is one of our greatest excuses. We may be weak, but God is strong, and He is willing to be our strength. If we will trust Him and take the necessary steps of faith, He will help us break free from our bondages.

What we need to understand is that Satan takes our circumstances—no matter what they are—and uses them to build strongholds in our lives. He’ll use whatever he can—our sense of weakness, our problems from childhood, or the wrong things we did when we were twelve years old. If the devil can darken our minds—make us think we can’t possibly win—we’ve lost. We need to keep reminding ourselves that we serve a victorious God who has provided the spiritual weapons we need to tear down the devil’s strongholds.
One more thing: When we give in to the temptation, aren’t we subtly saying that God is not able to help us? We don’t enjoy taking full responsibility for our actions—or, in many cases, our inaction—but we need to. We need to stop feeling sorry for ourselves, shifting blame, and ignoring situations. We need to believe the promise of God that declares He is faithful and will always deliver us in plenty of time. We don’t need to live in fear, always feeling that our problems are too much for us to handle. We must have a “can-do” attitude. One that says, “I can do whatever I need to do whenever I need to do it.” Sometimes we are even tempted to blame God for our troubles, but we must remember the words previously quoted: >“. . . but God is faithful . . . and He [can be trusted] not to let you be tempted . . . beyond your ability and strength of resistance . . .”
That’s God’s promise, and He lays His reputation on the line with that promise. God never abandons us or leaves us helpless. We can be like the woman who screamed but wouldn’t move. Or we can choose to say, “Look! There’s the door of escape! Thanks for providing it!”
Our problems are personal and they are often internal. They involve our thoughts and our attitudes. The results—the outward behavior—flow from those thoughts and attitudes. If we keep our mind turned toward Jesus, and if we listen to His voice, we know there is an escape route for us—always.
Father God, forgive me for blaming You, my circumstances, or other people for my failures. You are the Way-Maker for me in every temptation. I’m going to trust You to tear down the devil’s strongholds in my mind, in Jesus’ name. Amen.

Monday January 23, 2016

// January 23rd, 2017 // Comments Off on Monday January 23, 2016 // Daily News

Trump signs executive order to formally withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal

Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump formally withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal on Monday, distancing America from its Asian allies as China’s influence in the region rises.
Fulfilling a campaign pledge to end American involvement in the 2015 pact, Trump signed an executive order in the Oval Office pulling the United States from the 12-nation TPP.
“Great thing for the American worker,” Trump said as he signed the order on his third full day in office. The Republican says the trade deal would have damaged U.S. manufacturing.
The accord, backed heavily by U.S. business, was negotiated by former President Barack Obama’s administration but never approved by Congress. It had been the main economic pillar of the Obama administration’s “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region to counter China.
Trump has sparked worries in Japan and elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific with his opposition to the TPP and his campaign demands for U.S. allies to pay more for their security.
Harry Kazianis, Director of Defense Studies at the Center for the National Interest think tank in Washington, said Trump must now find an alternative way to reassure allies in Asia.
“This could include multiple bilateral trade agreements. Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam should be approached first as they are key to any new Asia strategy that President Trump will enact,” he said.
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said abandoning TPP was the “wrong decision” and a “serious mistake that will have lasting consequences for America’s economy and our strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region.”
“This decision will forfeit the opportunity to promote American exports, reduce trade barriers, open new markets, and protect American invention and innovation. It will create an opening for China to rewrite the economic rules of the road at the expense of American workers. And it will send a troubling signal of American disengagement in the Asia-Pacific region at a time we can least afford it,” said McCain, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
McCain emphasized the importance of a “positive trade agenda” in the Asia-Pacific region that keeps America “competitive in one of the most economically vibrant and fastest-growing regions in the world.”

Today’s Inspiration

Be Renewed

by Joyce Meyer – posted January 23, 2017

God selected . . . what the world calls weak to put the strong to shame. And God also selected (deliberately chose) what in the world is lowborn and insignificant and branded and treated with contempt, even the things that are nothing, that He might depose and bring to nothing the things that are, so that no mortal man should [have pretense for glorying and] boast in the presence of God.
—1 Corinthians 1:27-29

If you are weak in faith, in mind, in body, in discipline, in self-control, or in determination, simply wait on God. He will be strong through your weakness.

Isaiah 40:31 teaches that if you expect God, look for Him, and hope in Him, you will change and renew your strength and power; you will run, and not faint or become tired. The Bible doesn’t say “hope so, it could be, or it may be”; it declares that you will be renewed.