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Monday October 15, 2018

// October 15th, 2018 // Comments Off on Monday October 15, 2018 // Daily News

‘We’ve had the bulk of the gains we’re going to get’ in stocks, warns a disciple of Julian Robertson

The market has basically topped and won’t deliver the eye-popping returns of recent years, hedge fund manager David Gerstenhaber says.
“I’m not predicting a bear market at this point,” says Gerstenhaber, one of Robertson’s first so-called Tiger Cubs.
With economic growth and corporate profits slowing, and inflation creeping up, Gerstenhaber says those factors argue for “more cash.”

Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere

CNBC.com

The stock market has basically topped out and won’t deliver the eye-popping returns that investors have become accustomed to in recent years, hedge fund manager David Gerstenhaber told CNBC on Monday.
“I’m not predicting a bear market at this point. I want to be very clear about that,” said the Argonaut Capital Management president. “[But] you probably don’t get a peak of substance in the market until the end of the economic cycle is in sight.”
Stocks traditionally tend to shoot up in the last legs of an economic cycle, Gerstenhaber said. While he did not predict when that cycle might end, he did say, “If things work out quite well, you probably get 3 to 5 percent over the market next year.”
Gerstenhaber is one of Julian Robertson’s first so-called Tiger Cubs, stars who managed money at Tiger Investment Management. As a trained economist, Gerstenhaber launched the macro investment group at Robertson’s shop, which was responsible for some of the fund’s biggest calls during the 1990s, such as betting on the collapse of the British pound and the sharp slide in crude prices following the onset of the Persian Gulf War.
About 10 days ago, Gerstenhaber said he thought the market looked vulnerable. He put on “put spreads” on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. He said he’s evaluating when to cover those “put spreads,” which are an options strategy for investors who are moderately bearish. “[The market] has gotten down to where I thought it was going to get in terms of the hard break.”
In early trading on Monday, the S&P 500 has been down and up, continuing the volatility of last week, which ended with strong gains on Friday. But those gains were not nearly enough to make up for the rout on Wednesday and Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 4 percent for the week.
“Looking back a year, the Fed was radically mispriced, in my opinion. It seemed economic growth was pretty strong. The Fed had indicated that they wanted to tighten and the market really didn’t believe it,” Gerstenhaber said in a “Squawk Box” interview.
But that changed on Oct. 3. After the market closed that day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said monetary policy was a “long way” from neutral, touching off concerns the central bank would hike interest rates more aggressively than forecast. The stock market has essentially been under pressure ever since as higher rates make equities less valuable.
In 2018, the Fed increased rates in three 0.25 percentage point moves in March, June, and September to a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent. Another hike is expected in December.
After their September meeting, central bankers were projected on a path to raise rates to 3.4 percent, before pausing.
In making his case for capped market gains, Gerstenhaber said he sees the Fed raising rates “multiple times next year” after hiking in December.
“They are doing that against the backdrop of slower economic growth and slowing profit growth,” he continued. “The inflation rate is probably creeping up, in my opinion, given what we’re likely to see on wages at this point. So the Fed will keep going.”
Against that backdrop, Gerstenhaber said investors must be prepared for lower rates of return on financial assets. “It’s an argument for more cash, unequivocally at this point.”

The S&P 500 is coming off a 19.4 percent gain last year, on top of a 9.5 percent advance in 2016. The index was basically flat in 2015, after three straight years of double-digit gains.

Monday July 30, 2018

// July 30th, 2018 // Comments Off on Monday July 30, 2018 // Daily News

Trump threatens government shutdown if Democrats don’t back immigration reform

President Donald Trump called on Congress to fix immigration laws in a series of Twitter posts.
He threatened to ‘shut down’ the federal government if Democrats refused to back his demands for reform, including a border wall.

CNBC.com

President Donald Trump called on Congress to enact sweeping immigration reform, including a border wall, and threatened a federal government shutdown if Democrats refused to back his proposals.
In a series of early morning posts on Twitter, the president lambasted Congress over immigration reform. He then threatened to shut down the government if Congress didn’t move U.S. laws “based on MERIT!”
I would be willing to “shut down” government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall! Must get rid of Lottery, Catch & Release etc. and finally go to system of Immigration based on MERIT! We need great people coming into our Country!
Earlier this year, the White House released a proposal for merit-based immigration, which floundered in Congress amid tepid support from within the president’s own party. Meanwhile, Democratic leaders, who have embraced legalization of “Dreamers” as a rallying cry on immigration reform, have been galvanized by the administration’s family separation policy.
Theadministration’s framework included a $25 billion “trust fund” for a border wall, a path to citizenship for “Dreamer” immigrants, and an end to foreign visa lotteries that would end a program “riddled with abuse.” In an analysis of the proposal, the libertarian Cato Institute called the plan “draconian”, and said it would reduce legal immigration by up to 44 percent per year.
Amid searing images of undocumented families being separated at the border, Trump defended the controversial practice — which was in place under the Obama administration. Trump warned that there were “consequences when people cross our Border illegally.” He argued that parents attempting to cross the border are “using children for their own sinister purposes.”
Trump’s tweet Sunday came several days after the government said more than 1,800 children separated at the U.S.-Mexico border have been reunited with parents, and sponsors after a federal judge ordered the reunions. Hundreds of children still remain separated.

Today’s Inspiration

Why are you cast down, O my soul, and why are you in turmoil within me? Hope in God; for I shall again praise him, my salvation.

— Psalm 42:5

Discouragement destroys hope.
Failure easily leads to more failure.
And once we allow our minds to say, “This is the way it will always be,” Satan has won a victory over us.

Lord Jesus, with Your help, I can make it. With Your help, I won’t be discouraged and feel hopeless. With Your help, I can defeat every wrong thought that Satan slips into my mind. Thank You for victory. Amen.